Prospects 2010-12: Comparing Hype To Success

With MLB.com releasing their top prospects list for each club in the National League West in 2012, it’s time to take a look at previous year’s predictions and how they panned out.

We’ll first examine MLB.com’s top three prospects entering the 2010 season to compare their actual performance from earlier seasons against MLB’s predicted success in 2010. The same for 2011, with the prospect’s previous seasons compared to predicted success in 2011.

Each player’s final stats from that season are listed for you to judge if the prospect performed up to the hype.

The 2010 class included: Ivan DeJesus (SS ), Scott Elbert (LHP) and Dee Gordon (SS)
The 2011 class included: Zach Lee (RHP), Allen Webster (RHP) and Chris Withrow (RHP)

So let’s take a glance at how accurate the predictions have been, as well as who to expect in Albuquerque in 2012. (Chance to see with the ‘Topes is predicted on a 1-5 scale, 5 being the most likely to play for the team)

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MLB.com – Top 3 Prospects 2010: Ivan DeJesus, SS | Scott Elbert, LHP | Dee Gordon, SS

1. Ivan DeJesus, SS

(2009) Entering his fifth season in the big leagues, DeJesus was poised for a comeback run after suffering a season-ending broken leg injury during Spring Training. The talented, young middle infielder had posted some gaudy numbers the previous year for Double-A Jacksonville, posting a .419 on-base percentage and hitting .324 in 463 at-bats. At the conclusion of the 2009 season, DeJesus made a strong enough recovery to appear in a few games of rookie ball and 10 games in winter ball.

(2010) As the 2010 season approached, DeJesus was ranked as the top upcoming prospect for the Dodger’s organization by MLB.com. The scouting report listed him as a “solid defender with terrific instincts and a great approach at the plate.” The Triple-A Isotopes slotted him as an everyday starter, but citing a limited defensive range, switched DeJesus to second base early in the season. Ivan finished the season ranking second on the Isotopes in games played (130) and base hits (158), but saw a decline in overall plate discipline.

2010 (AAA) Final Stat Line: 130 GP | .296 BA | .335 OBP | .405 SLG
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 5

2. Scott Elbert, LHP

(2009) Elbert was consistently ranked top in Dodger’s prospects from the year he was drafted. He played across the board during the 2009 season, making appearances for Double-A Chattanooga (62 innings), Triple-A Albuquerque (33 innings) and Major League Los Angeles (19 innings), including a post season roster spot with the Dodgers. The left-handed pitcher’s arsenal featured a mid-90s fastball complimented by a deadly slider that lead to a 9.6 strikeouts-per-nine-innings pitched at the MLB level.

(2010) The lefty’s 2010 campaign was abruptly cut short when he left the organization because of “personal issues.” Elbert told the media, “It was just a lot of personal stuff I had to take care of, and that’s about it.” Adding to the confusion, the hurler had switched from a starting pitcher, to a reliever, then back to a starter over the previous few years, leaving his role in the rotation even more uncertain. Scott Elbert returned at the conclusion of the 2010 season to strike out 15 batters in 11.2 innings with the Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League, but still raised concerns over his lack of control on the mound.

2010 (AAA) Final Stat Line: 1-1 | 4.98 ERA | 43.1 IP | 45 SO
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 1

3. Dee Gordon, SS

(2009) The sky was the limit for the 21-year-old shortstop, who many dubbed as the 2010 prospect with the most upside. His 2009 season was decorated with numerous accolades including All-Star SS in MidWest League (MWL), MWL Prospect of the Year, Co-MVP of the MWL and Topps MWL Player of the Year. His awards came on the back of a .301 season at the plate with 73 stolen bases, and he left scouts drooling with his “80 speed on a scale of 20-80.”

(2010) Continuing on his successful trajectory, Gordon played in 133 games with the Chattanooga Lookouts in 2010. “Flash Junior’s” stats weren’t as impressive on paper during his promotion, but scouts saw the raw talent within the young prospect. He improved his defensive ability (despite 37 errors) to be named the Dodger’s best defensive infielder by Baseball America. Scouting reports of 2010 said Gordon, although very talented, “does need to be more patient at the plate and learn to take more walks.”

2010 (AA) Final Stat Line: 133 GP | .277 BA | .332 OBP | .355 SLG
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 1

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MLB.com -Top 3 Prospects 2011: Zach Lee, RHP | Allen Webster, RHP | Chris Withrow, RHP

1. Zach Lee, RHP

(2010) The Dodger’s first round pick of the 2010 MLB Draft was high school phenom Zach Lee. The McKinney, Texas native mowed down batters his senior year to win 11 games, post a 2.15 ERA and fan 90 batters. Lee had originally signed to attend Louisiana State University on a dual football and baseball scholarship, but after being selected with the 28th overall pick in the amateur draft, headed to Single-A Great Lakes to begin his professional career.

(2011) The right-handed pitcher made an immediate impact on the Great Lakes Loons by starting 24 games in his rookie season. Using textbook mechanics, he packs a mid-90s fastball, breaking ball, slider and the occasional changeup. In addition, scouts have continuously praised the rookie’s body build and attitude, noting “he’s very athletic and brings a football-like competitiveness to the mound.” For future success, experts agree that Lee needs to continue to improve his command of his pitches and add some velocity to the fastball/slider combination.

2011 (A) Final Stat Line: 9-6 | 3.47 ERA | 109.0 IP |91 SO
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 2

2. Allen Webste, RHP

(2010) 2010 marked Allen Webster’s first full season outside of Rookie ball. The former 18th round selection answered the call by pitching in 131.1 innings for Single-A Great Lakes and posting a 12-9 record during the season. He was a Midwest League All-Star selection , but scouting reports suggest he lacks the potential upside of his fellow pitching prospects. Webster employs a five-pitch mix with a consistent delivery to appear a safe-bet to eventually become a Major League starter.

(2011) As he climbed the baseball ranks, so did his ERA. Allen Webster began the 2011 season with nine successful outings (2.33 ERA) before being promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. With the Lookouts, the slinger saw 91 innings of action but gave up 101 hits and seven home runs with a 5.04 ERA. Webster’s success relied upon his continued command on his changeup, perhaps the best of any of the Dodgers’ pitching prospects. Like most upcoming pitchers, reports insist upon adding velocity to help his chances of making the MLB squad.

2011 (AA) Final Stat Line: 6-3 | 5.04 ERA | 91.0 IP |73 SO
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 2

3. Chris Withrow, RHP

(2010) Chris Withrow is the opposite style of pitching prospect than his two counterparts Lee and Webster. Scouts are excited about the unharnessed potential in Withrow, but his command and mechanics still require work if he’s to be promoted to the next level. Withrow’s 2010 campaign resulted in below average numbers with flashes of potential. The pitcher went 4-9 with a 5.97 ERA in 129.2 innings of action and recorded one shutout. His performance and potential leave scouts excited, but he continued the following season with a third appearance in Double-A.

(2011) Last season marked Withrow’s third stint with the Lookouts. His developing fastball and curve left hitters guessing while he continues to develop his changeup. The right-handed pitcher lowered his ERA to 4.20 and collected 130 strikeouts with a 6-6 record. Although his control improved from the 2010 season, reports are still concerned with his overall pitching ability at this stage in his career, and some consider moving Withrow to a potential reliever out of the bullpen.

2011 (AA) Final Stat Line: 6-6 | 4.20 ERA | 128.2 IP |130 SO
*Chance to see with the ‘Topes in 2012: 3

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MLB.com’s predictions have been strikingly accurate over the past few years, with most prospects reaching Double-A leagues by the end of the predicted season. This could mean good news for Albuquerque fans, as the ‘Topes are the next and final stop before the Big Show. This year’s selection includes Zach Lee (RHP), Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) and Allen Webster (RHP). Although some players coming to Triple-A may seem like a long shot, keep your fingers crossed to see a few of these quickly rising prospects here in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

1 Comment

Can’t imagine the Dodgers letting Zach Lee or any of their other top prospects pitching here in ABQ. They seem to skip AAA and go straight from AA. Look at Kershaw, DeLaRosa, Guerra … It’s frustrating

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